原创 2016-04-13 季天鹤央行观察

作者：季天鹤，方正中期期货利率汇率研究员，央行观察专栏作家

国际收支平衡表是经济和金融分析中的重要报表。从宏观研究的角度看，国际收支包含了实体经济运行，例如GDP中包含的净出口项目就是国际收支平衡表的一部分。从汇率研究的角度看，国际收支包含了流动性运动，例如影响银行间流动性的外汇储备与外汇占款也是国际收支平衡表的一部分。本文将从流动性的视角出发，分析中国的国际收支平衡表的玄机——其他投资项。

国际收支平衡表的流动性视角

国际收支平衡表之所以被称作收支平衡表，因为其主要目的乃是想要衡量某种东西的收支是否平衡。在国际收支这个概念出现的时候，上述“收支的东西”乃是贵金属。历史上贵金属的流动非常重要，因为贵金属同时是本国货币和外国货币，国际收支持续逆差将造成本国货币量下降，产生各类通货紧缩的问题。

我们可以采取两种视角来分析国际收支平衡表。一个是实体经济视角。例如经常项目中服务贸易和货物贸易等项目，意味着出口和进口了各种服务和货物，这些都是实体经济的东西，只不过在国际收支平衡表上用货币衡量了价值。而另一个视角乃是流动性视角，也就是和前面提到的关注贵金属流动一脉相承的视角。在这个视角下，国际收支平衡表关注的是流动性的运动，而表上的许多项目被看作是导致流动性运动的原因，国际收支平衡表被看作一个现金流表。

如果把现金流表和资产负债表或者损益表比较，我们更能理解什么叫做“导致流动性运动的原因”和“实体经济自己”。在资产负债表上面，资产和负债表明了某种实在的东西，比如资产侧的房屋和债权，尽管以货币价值入表，但资产负债表上表示的都是那些东西，是作为东西而不是作为货币在体现，资产负债表上的房屋就是房屋，而不是房子价值那么多的贵金属。

损益表也是如此，卖出货物就是卖出了那些货物，购买了服务就是购买了那些服务，本身并不意味着卖货物得到的钱或者发工资的钱本身。但现金流表不是，现金流表的卖出货物收入指的是卖出货物得到的钱，发出工资就是指的发工资而支付的钱，现金流表上面的所有项目都是告诉我们货币因为什么而产生运动，而不是那些原因自己。

国际收支平衡表的现金流表属性，也告诉了我们为什么国际收支平衡表会有一个项目叫做错误和遗漏，因为这就是现金流表的目标，即把各种导致现金流动的原因列出后，用现金存量的变动去核对，财务报表上面两者应该完全能够对上。而国际收支平衡表则由于各种各样的原因对不上。

从实体经济的视角来看，人们会思考为什么错误和遗漏是这样的规模和这样的方向（贷方/借方），认为还有一些导致流动性运动的因素没有反映在平衡表上。但从流动性的角度看，只有代表流动性的那些数据才是主要的，而流动性的来源和流动性运动的原因的重要性是次要的，错误和遗漏说明现有的那些导致流动性运动的原因的统计有问题。

实体经济的视角和流动性的视角同时存在于国际收支平衡表的分析当中。尽管由于分析的目的不同，两种视角的重要性会有差异，但须谨记，实体经济和流动性是相互联系的，而在中国这种联系还是很强的。比如人们常说的“虚假贸易”就是一个很典型的导致流动性运动的原因，它的存在不是实体经济的需要，而是流动性运动的需要。

但中国的贸易毕竟主要还是“真实贸易”，人们是真的需要那些商品本身，而不是把商品当作某种借口去获得流动性。此外，中国的资本项目还不是国际收支的主要部分，纯粹的流动性运动还没有支配中国的国际收支平衡表，而对于不少金融为主的小型经济体而言，资本流动的影响完全掩盖了实体经济的影响。

中国国际收支的玄机：其他投资项

在分析中国的国际收支时需要注意中国的特色。一个特色是所谓财务操作，也就是由于导致现金流变化的原因之后还有别的操作。比如说出口商出口了货物，在经常项目上有了顺差，在过去人民币升值的时代，出口商的操作都是在境内收款然后结汇换人民币，而银行也把外汇给央行，形成了国际收支上“贸易顺差+外汇储备逆差”的组合。注意，外汇储备逆差意味着外汇储备增加。

但现在这种组合发生变化，“出口商在银行收款结汇-银行在央行存款结汇”的操作扭转。尽管经常项目顺差依然存在，但出口商直接在境外持有存款意味着境外存款增加，银行不找央行结汇而是直接在境外持有存款也意味着境外存款增加，都和外汇储备无关，“贸易顺差+外汇储备逆差”的组合不再成立。

也就是说，经常项目顺差和外汇储备之间并不是简单的因果关系，而是在多个因素影响下选择的结果。从目前的情况看，实体经济因素对中国资本流动以及人民币汇率的影响正在下降，而金融因素的影响正在上升。08年以前我们或许还可以说，出口商需要把收到的外币变成本币支付工资和原料，因为那个时候出口商自己的钱很少，只有依靠货款才能还债，经常项目顺差支持了人民币汇率。

但在现在，出口商们都很有钱，可以选择使用收到的外币结汇支付工资和原料，或者让货款留在境外而自己用在境内的人民币支付工资和原料，本质上实现了境内人民币转移到境外的操作。继续盯住经常项目顺差，将会错过真正决定汇率的因素。事实上外汇局自己很清楚这一点，因此会考察所谓顺差结汇率等指标，因为它也知道实体经济的运动和流动性的运动存在分离。

另一个特色是人民币国际化的初级阶段。人民币国际化意味着境内银行负债侧的人民币存款被国外银行持有。由于中国目前资本项目还没有开放，使得上述的人民币存款无法顺利转化为境内人民币资产，而是停留在持有在岸银行人民币存款的地步，仅仅从支付便利、人民币高存款利率和人民币升值三个维度来满足持有者，反映在国际收支上也就是在“其他投资”内部，而不是通常的“证券投资”等项目。

如果延续上述的两个特点继续深入，我们会看到流动性视角下的中国国际收支平衡表分析，其重点不在于经常项目和直接投资等相对稳定的变量，而在于证券投资和其他投资等不稳定的变量。上述区分在外汇局的国际收支报告中已经被多次强调。而我们还可以在外汇局的观点上更进一步，即指出在上述不稳定的变量中，我们要同时考虑作为资产的流动性和作为负债的流动性。前者是外币流动性，指的是外汇储备和境外存款，而后者是人民币流动性，指的是非居民在华存款。传统的分析不需要考虑人民币流动性，但现在当人民币跨境付款规模是总跨境付款规模的25%的时候，就已经不能忽视了。

所以我们看2015年4季度的中国国际收支表，首先看到外汇储备下降了7359亿元人民币（也就是7359亿顺差），然后就是“其他投资资产-货币和存款”逆差2079亿。这意味着，作为外币流动性的外汇储备少了，但是同样作为外币流动性的非央行部门持有外汇增加了。考虑到非银行主体在境外直接持有外汇存款的规模较少，这部分逆差（增持）应该都是境内银行部门在境外持有，“藏汇于民”已经开始了“藏汇于银行”的阶段，但距离非银行主体直接在境外持有的状态还有距离。

同时，我们看到其他投资资产中的贷款顺差2396亿人民币，意味着这些贷款被归还了。这反映出，这些贷款在最开始恐怕就是境外中资机构自己找境内中资银行借的，人民币汇改之后，这些贷款被加速偿还了。同样被偿还的还有“其他投资负债—贷款”逆差3407亿人民币，注意负债的逆差意味着债务的偿还，也就是说除了前面说的境内银行对境外的贷款被偿还之外，境外银行对境内主体的贷款也被偿还了。

另外我们还看到“其他投资负债—货币和存款”也下降了3462亿元，这意味着境外主体在境内持有的人民币存款有了巨大的下降。我们可以看到这个季度数据和其他存款性公司国外负债的季度变化在2015年很一致，以及这个季度数据和银行代客涉外净收付款人民币的季度值在2010年起的大多数季度都很一致，除了2015年4季度。

2015年4季度里，我们看到涉外收付款口径里面人民币其实是净流出了4091亿元。在2010年起的大多数时候，人民币收付款的净变化和“其他投资负债—货币和存款”变化一致的原因，主要还是因为收付款的结果都是以货币和存款方式持有。如果人民币汇出之后，境外银行在境内增加人民币存款，然后就用来购买某种在岸资产，那么涉外人民币收付款和“其他投资负债—货币和存款”的关系就不那么紧密了。

不过2015年4季度发生的事情显然不同。客户的人民币跑了出去，这一步使得收款的境外银行和其他境外主体在境内的人民币存款增加，但此后，境外银行和其他境外主体其实是在减持在岸人民币存款，减持力度比跑出去的人民币还要多。而且，减持在岸人民币存款的目的是换成外汇走掉，这当然使得央行外汇储备下降。

境外银行的思路其实很好理解。收到人民币汇款后，境外银行的负债多了人民币，资产也多了人民币。而如果这时候境外银行把人民币资产转换为直接在境外的美元，在人民币贬值的时候岂不是比资产也是人民币更好？而如果境外银行的人民币存款负债被客户转换成了美元，那么为了避免损失，境外银行的资产侧就更不能是人民币了。何况，境外银行负债侧的存量人民币存款在汇改之后变成美元存款，这导致境外银行把在境内银行的存量人民币存款变成美元存款，而对资本管制的担忧则会导致境外银行把在境内银行的美元存款提走。

小结

传统国际收支平衡分析从实体经济角度出发，重点讨论导致流动性变化的原因，即货物、服务等实体项目是如何影响最终的外汇储备的。但对于利率汇率分析来说，上述的流动性变化原因是趋势性变化，对于月度和季度区间上的分析而言影响有限，而流动性本身的运动则更为重要，这也是国际收支平衡分析的流动性视角的价值所在。

中国国际收支目前这种“玄机尽在其他投资”的状态，乃是由于资本项目没有完全开放造成的。随着资本项目不断开放，人们会把各类存款迅速转化为其他证券资产，非银行主体也会绕开本国银行而直接对接境外。而对于国际收支平衡表的研究而言，如何和其他的中国流动性数据相结合，将是这一领域研究的一个新挑战。

The Balance of Payments Statement is an important report in economic and financial analysis. From a macroeconomic perspective, the balance of payments encompasses the operation of the real economy; for instance, the net exports included in GDP are part of the balance of payments. From the standpoint of exchange rate analysis, the balance of payments includes liquidity movements, such as foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange deposits that affect interbank liquidity, also being part of the balance of payments. This article will analyze the intricacies of China's balance of payments from the perspective of liquidity, focusing on other investment items.

Liquidity Perspective of the Balance of Payments

The balance of payments is named so because its primary purpose is to measure whether something's inflows and outflows are balanced. When the concept of balance of payments emerged, the aforementioned "something" was precious metals. Historically, the flow of precious metals was significant as they served as both domestic and foreign currency. Continuous balance of payments deficits would lead to a decrease in domestic currency, giving rise to various deflationary issues.

We can analyze the balance of payments from two perspectives. One is the real economy perspective, focusing on items like services and goods trade in the current account. These items represent various services and goods traded, quantified in monetary terms on the balance of payments, yet they are still tangible aspects of the real economy. The other perspective is the liquidity perspective, which is consistent with the historical focus on the flow of precious metals. In this view, the balance of payments focuses on the movement of liquidity, and many items on the balance sheet are seen as reasons for liquidity movement, making it akin to a cash flow statement.

Comparing the cash flow statement with the balance sheet or income statement, we can better grasp the difference between "reasons for liquidity movement" and the "real economy itself." Assets and liabilities on the balance sheet represent tangible things, such as properties and bonds. However, cash flow statements directly reveal the reasons for currency movement. The cash flow generated from selling goods signifies the actual money received from those sales, and paying wages represents the actual money spent on wages. This is unlike other financial statements where the focus is on the things themselves rather than the currency movement caused by those things.

The cash flow statement attributes of the balance of payments also explain why it includes an item labeled "errors and omissions." This is because the cash flow statement's purpose is to list various reasons causing cash movement and reconcile it with changes in cash balance. Both aspects should match on financial statements. However, due to various reasons, the balance of payments might not perfectly align.

From the real economy perspective, one might ponder the scale and direction (credit/debit) of errors and omissions and believe that some factors causing liquidity movement aren't reflected in the balance sheet. From the liquidity standpoint, only data representing liquidity matters significantly, and the sources and reasons behind liquidity movement become secondary. Errors and omissions suggest issues with the statistics related to the existing reasons for liquidity movement.

Both the real economy and liquidity perspectives coexist in the analysis of the balance of payments. While the importance of these two perspectives may differ due to the analytical purpose, it's crucial to remember that the real economy and liquidity are interconnected, and this connection is strong in China. The concept of "phantom trade" often mentioned refers to a typical cause of liquidity movement, which isn't driven by the real economy's needs but by liquidity requirements.

However, China's trade is still primarily "real trade," where goods are genuinely needed, and they aren't just a pretext for obtaining liquidity. Additionally, China's capital account isn't yet a major part of the balance of payments; pure liquidity movement hasn't entirely dominated China's balance of payments. Yet, for smaller economies with a more financial focus, capital flow effects can overshadow the impact of the real economy.

The Enigma of China's Balance of Payments: Other Investment Items

Analyzing China's balance of payments requires considering its unique characteristics. One such characteristic is financial operations, where additional operations occur after reasons causing cash flow changes. For instance, during the era of RMB appreciation, exporters used to receive payments domestically and then convert them to RMB, which led to a combination of "trade surplus + foreign exchange reserve deficit" in the balance of payments. Note that a foreign exchange reserve deficit means an increase in reserves.

However, this combination has changed. Exporters now hold deposits abroad, which increases foreign deposits, and banks also hold deposits abroad instead of converting them to RMB reserves. Even though a trade surplus still exists in the current account, the combination of "trade surplus + foreign exchange reserve deficit" is no longer applicable.

In essence, the relationship between a trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves isn't straightforward causality; it's a result influenced by multiple factors. Presently, the impact of real economy factors on China's capital flows and RMB exchange rate is decreasing, while the influence of financial factors is rising. Before 2008, one could argue that exporters needed to convert received foreign currency into domestic currency for paying wages and materials. However, now exporters have substantial foreign currency holdings and can choose between using them for transactions or keeping them abroad.

China's internationalization of the RMB is in its early stages. This means that onshore RMB deposits on the liability side of domestic banks are held by foreign banks. Since China's capital account isn't fully open, these RMB deposits can't be easily converted into onshore RMB assets. This results in the situation where the holders are satisfied mainly through payment convenience, higher onshore RMB deposit rates, and RMB appreciation. This aspect is reflected within "other investment" rather than typical items like "securities investment" in the balance of payments.

If we delve further into these two characteristics, we'll observe that analyzing China's balance of payments from a liquidity perspective focuses not only on relatively stable variables like the current account and direct investment but also on volatile variables like securities investment and other investment. This distinction has been highlighted multiple times in China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reports. To delve even deeper, we can identify the need to consider both the liquidity as an asset and the liquidity as a liability within these unstable variables.

In conclusion, traditional balance of payments analysis starts from the perspective of the real economy and discusses how tangible items like goods and services affect foreign exchange reserves due to liquidity changes. However, for interest rate and exchange rate analysis, these liquidity change reasons are trend-based and have limited impact on short-term intervals like months and quarters. In this context, the movement of liquidity itself becomes more important, showcasing the value of analyzing the balance of payments from a liquidity perspective.

The current situation in China's balance of payments, where the "enigma lies within other investment," is a consequence of the partially closed capital account. As capital account restrictions gradually ease, various deposits will swiftly transform into other securities assets, and non-bank entities will directly interact with foreign entities, bypassing domestic banks. Research in the field will face new challenges, particularly in combining China's balance of payments analysis with other liquidity data.