2016-8-14 央行观察

央行利润上缴财政的背后，蕴含了央行理论和运行机制中深层次的问题。

文 \ 季天鹤央行观察专栏作家

央行利润如何上缴财政？这方面的重要资料是央行和财政部公布的《中国人民银行财务制度》，当中提到，财政部对人民银行实行独立的财务预算管理制度，人民银行预算中各项收支相抵后，净额纳入国家预算。人民银行遵循收付实现制会计核算原则。另外，人民银行也公布了一些关于自己会计科目的说明。

和一般人们考虑财务制度先考虑资产的思路不同，《中国人民银行财务制度》在总则之后的第二章，讨论的是所有者权益和负债。所有者权益包括国家资本、固定基金、总准备金、未分配利润等。国家资本是国家拨付本行和本行补充的资本。固定基金核算购建、调拨、接受捐赠、盘盈、置换固定资产时形成的基金。

总准备金核算央行从实现利润中按规定比例提取的总准备金。全行利润按财政部批准的比例提取总准备金后，净利润由总行全部上缴中央财政。净亏损首先由历年提取的总准备金弥补，不足弥补的部分由中央财政拨补。而利润项目则包括本年利润和亏损、未分配利润、待上缴利润、待弥补亏损等。

从央行的描述来看，央行利润上缴财政的过程应该如下。例如，2015年当中，央行首先实现本年利润。2016年1月1日，央行在2015年的利润就变成了未分配利润，等待预算决算的批准。批准之后，一部分未分配利润变成了总准备金，一部分未分配利润成为了待上缴利润。上缴利润时，待上缴利润减少，相关科目增加。那么这里的相关科目是什么呢？

我们看一眼财政部的情况。在2016年的政府收支分类科目中，中国人民银行上缴收入是103060101。这里面103表示非税收入，06表示当中的国有资本经营收入，而第一个01表示利润收入，第二个01表示中国人民银行上缴收入。除了01利润收入外，国有资本经营收入还有02股利股息收入、03产权转让收入、04清算收入等项目。

从上面的科目来看，人民银行上缴的利润，应该在财政部非税收入下面的“国有资本经营收入”里，反映在一般预算收入当中。考虑到中央级一般预算收入放在央行负债侧，因此前面提到的“上缴利润时，待上缴利润减少，相关科目增加”应该就是央行负债侧的“中央预算收入”之类的存款账户。

如果考虑央行的利润来源，我们就需要关注央行的收入和支出，这个表述散发着浓浓的收付实现制的味道。《中国人民银行财务制度》提到了三方面的财务收入，即利息收入、业务收入和其他收入。同时，《中国人民银行财务制度》还提到了六方面的财务支出，即利息支出、业务支出、管理费支出、事业费支出、固定资产构建支出、其他支出。

业务收入包括外汇储备经营收益、金银业务收入、手续费收入、证券买卖收益、预算外专项收入、其他业务收入等。其中，外汇储备经营收益是国家外汇储备经营过程中取得的净收益。金银业务收入是金银收售过程中发生的升色、升秤等收益（实际纯度和重量比标注的高），金银业务支出是金银收售过程中发生的降色、降秤损失及有关开支。

金银业务收入和支出很有特色。前面提到，央行的固定资产盘盈直接进入权益当中的固定基金，但是升色升秤降色降秤则直接进入了收入和支出。这充分体现了贵金属相对于固定资产来说有更具有货币意义，和外汇储备是等价的。直接进入收入和支出，意味着可以通过待分配利润的上缴而直接“货币化”，这是贵金属的“盘盈盘亏”与固定资产的盘盈盘亏的区别。

在外汇储备收益方面，我在《外汇占款消失后我们看什么？》当中倾向于认为，外汇储备美元计价的变动本身，不会影响央行资产负债表的人民币值，只有央行决定将损益“变现”的时候，才会同时影响央行的资产（外汇占款）和所有者权益（待分配利润），而待分配利润上缴增加财政存款。如果央行不断将损益变现，那么看上去就是外汇储备美元计价不断影响央行资产负债表的待分配利润。

除了外汇储备经营收益之外，央行提到，证券买卖收益是人民银行实施货币政策在公开市场业务吞吐国债和其他特定债券产生的净收益，证券买卖损失是人民银行在公开市场上吞吐政府债券及其他特定债券产生的净损失。需要注意的是：升秤升色和外汇储备经营收益都是资产自身升值贬值，这本身虽也意味着金银和外汇资产的人民币计价规模变化，但在这一过程中没有人民币的吞吐。买卖金银、买卖外汇、买卖证券三者是对等的，不但有人民币的吞吐，还有人民币计价规模的变化。

但是从央行的财务制度来看，我们没有看到买卖金银和买卖外汇会导致央行的收支变化。这意味着，央行可能在调整金银和外汇的数量的同时，等量调整占款和人民币。在这个操作中，由于资产和负债总是等量变动的，即使金银外汇和各自的占款变动比价不同，但只要占款和人民币负债等量变动，就不涉及所有者权益。

举例来说，央行买入1万亿美元同时创造7万亿人民币，随后卖出0.5万亿美元收回3万亿人民币，按理说它应该面临了5000亿元人民币的损失，但在会计上，央行买入1万亿美元表现为同时增加7万亿占款和7万亿准备金存款，卖出0.5万亿美元表现为同时减少3万亿人民币和3万亿准备金存款，和待分配利润没有关系，也没有损益。

为什么金银升色升秤和外汇储备经营收益可以计入利润，证券买卖收益和损失可以计入利润，但金银买卖和外汇买卖的人民币损益不能计入利润？直接来看，这恐怕和“占款”这种机制有关。央行买入证券当然也要创造流动性，也可以考虑计成“证券占款”，但现实当中，央行对于证券使用的是证券本身的成本计价，而非“占款”。

成本和占款的区别也可以用上面的例子表示。我们会看到，央行卖出0.5万亿美元之后，虽然没有产生损益，但是剩余的0.5万亿美元对应的，乃是4万亿人民币，相当于一比八。如果使用成本法，那么0.5万亿美元维持一比七的汇率，应该对应3.5万亿人民币。也就是说，占款的处理无视损益，但风险反映在了“准备金率”里面。

这可能是由于，金银和外汇过去是作为“准备”而出现的，而且很多时候和负债侧的货币是固定的兑换比率，因此在计量的时候考虑“占款”，在不同的价格上吞吐人民币不反映为损益，而反映为准备金率的变化，即使现在兑换比率变化了还是如此。但对于证券的吞吐，央行考虑损益，但不考虑“准备金率”。

小结上面的内容，我们发现：央行作为银行，有把所有者权益中待分配利润直接变成负债的能力，而由于央行负债就是流动性本身，因此央行利润上缴财政是创造流动性的过程，这和企业上缴利润是流动性转移不同。涉及国际收支的金银外汇的人民币公允价值变动，由于成本法计价而不影响央行损益。因金银的人民币价格或外汇的人民币汇率变动，导致的金银与外汇相关的人民币交易（金银买卖、结售汇）损益，因资产和负债的同增同减而不影响央行损益，也不影响央行权益。金银和外汇自身的价值变动，可以通过央行同时调整占款和权益“变现”影响央行损益。

了解了人民银行利润如何上缴财政，我们就看到央行和财政之间的关系是非常紧密的。我们可以考虑两个问题。一个问题是，外汇储备是央行的，央行是国家的，利润是上缴财政的，为什么外汇储备不能被国家财政无偿划拨。之前我在一系列文章当中讨论过这个问题，和本文相关的，就是《划拨外汇储备能否崩坏央行资产负债表？》一文。

在该文中，我提到“股价下跌或无偿划拨，后者非但不会崩坏央行的资产负债表，反而对央行资产负债表不产生任何影响。”现在更深入地来看，无偿划拨处于一个模棱两可的状态。从一个角度看，无偿划拨可以看作用“零”人民币兑换数千亿美元，在这个角度下无偿划拨不会影响央行资产负债表，但会导致央行的“准备金率”下降。另一方面，无偿划拨可以看作外汇储备减值，这除了降低“准备金率”之外，还在减少外汇占款的同时，减少央行的权益中的总准备金，甚至导致待弥补亏损的增加，财政相当于白得了外汇，但亏了在央行的权益，两厢加总也只是左手倒右手，不赚不亏。

另一个问题是：财政部下属的中投每年要支付特别国债利息给央行，而央行的这笔国债利息收入最终会成为央行利润上缴给财政，相当于本来就是财政部的钱，先找央行过手，然后又回到了财政部。那么这笔交易，和中投直接把用来支付特别国债利息的收益上缴给财政部，有什么区别？

可能的回答是，尽管在现金流向方面，最终的结果是一样的，但市场化产生的价格导致了市场化的结果，这里面的关键就是国债利率水平。如果中投直接上缴收益给财政部，那么它就没有付息义务导致的经营压力，不会有楼总07年在采访中所称的每天睁开眼就要付3个亿利息的焦虑。如果国债利率水平不是市场化的，它面对的激励就不是市场化的，就会产生扭曲。

在微观上，市场化的安排和市场化的现金流向，本身也规范了微观主体的行为。尽管央行的利润最终都归财政，向财政缴税、交费、缴利润、发股息都不过是付款科目的区别，但恰恰是这些不同的科目和操作，确保了财政和央行的操作和行为，都合乎规范和市场要求，每个主体都可以尽自己最大的理性行事。货币的价值在流动中体现，流动的路径比归宿更有意义。

How is the central bank's profit turned over to the fiscal authority? Important information in this regard is outlined in the "Financial System of the People's Bank of China" jointly released by the central bank and the Ministry of Finance. According to this document, the Ministry of Finance implements an independent financial budget management system for the central bank. After reconciling various revenues and expenses in the central bank's budget, the net amount is incorporated into the national budget. The central bank follows the accrual accounting principle for accounting. Additionally, the central bank has also published explanations on its own accounting subjects.

In contrast to the typical approach where people often consider assets first when discussing financial systems, the "Financial System of the People's Bank of China" in Chapter 2 following the general principles discusses equity and liabilities. Equity includes state capital, fixed funds, general reserves, undistributed profits, and more. State capital refers to capital allocated and supplemented by the state to the central bank. Fixed funds account for funds formed during the purchase, construction, allocation, donation, inventory surplus, and replacement of fixed assets.

General reserves account for the total reserves extracted by the central bank from realized profits according to prescribed ratios. After the total reserves are extracted from the total profits according to the ratio approved by the Ministry of Finance, the net profit is fully turned over to the central government. If there is a net loss, it is first offset by accumulated total reserves from previous years, and any remaining shortfall is subsidized by the central government. The profit items include current-year profit and loss, undistributed profits, profits awaiting turnover, and losses awaiting offset.

Based on the description from the central bank, the process of turning over profits to the fiscal authority should be as follows. For instance, in 2015, the central bank first realized its annual profit. On January 1, 2016, the profit from 2015 becomes undistributed profit, awaiting approval during budget settlement. After approval, a portion of the undistributed profit becomes general reserves, and another portion becomes profits awaiting turnover. During turnover, profits awaiting turnover decrease, and related accounts increase. So, what are these related accounts?

Taking a look at the Ministry of Finance's information, in the government revenue and expenditure classification items for 2016, the revenue turned over by the People's Bank of China is coded as 103060101. Here, 103 represents non-tax revenue, 06 represents state-owned capital operating revenue, and the first 01 indicates profit revenue, while the second 01 indicates revenue turned over by the People's Bank of China. Apart from 01 profit revenue, other items in state-owned capital operating revenue include 02 dividends and interest income, 03 property transfer income, 04 liquidation income, and more.

From these accounting items, it appears that the profit turned over by the central bank is categorized under "State-Owned Capital Operating Revenue" within the Ministry of Finance's non-tax revenue, reflecting in the general budget income. Given that central-level general budget income is placed on the liability side of the central bank, the earlier mentioned process of "profits awaiting turnover decreasing and related accounts increasing during turnover" likely refers to deposit accounts like "Central Budget Income" on the liability side of the central bank.

Considering the source of the central bank's profit, attention needs to be given to its revenue and expenses, which exude a strong flavor of accrual accounting. The "Financial System of the People's Bank of China" mentions three sources of financial revenue: interest income, operating revenue, and other revenue. Additionally, it outlines six categories of financial expenses: interest expenses, operating expenses, management fees, program expenses, fixed asset construction expenses, and other expenses.

Operating revenue includes net income from foreign exchange reserve operations, revenue from gold and silver operations, fee income, gains from securities trading, off-budget special revenue, and other operating revenue. Among these, net income from foreign exchange reserve operations refers to net earnings achieved during the process of managing national foreign exchange reserves. Revenue from gold and silver operations involves income generated from color change, weighing adjustment, and other benefits during gold and silver buying and selling (actual purity and weight may differ from indicated). Expenses from gold and silver operations account for losses incurred due to color change, weighing adjustment, and related expenses during gold and silver buying and selling.

The unique feature of revenue and expenses from gold and silver operations is noteworthy. Previously mentioned, when central bank fixed assets show a surplus, it directly contributes to equity in the form of fixed funds. However, the proceeds from color change and weighing adjustments directly contribute to both revenue and expenses. This emphasizes that precious metals, relative to fixed assets, possess more monetary significance and are equivalent to foreign exchange reserves. The direct contribution to revenue and expenses means that these can be "monetized" through the turnover of undistributed profits, which differentiates the "gain and loss from gold and silver operations" from the gain and loss of fixed assets.

Regarding revenue from foreign exchange reserve operations, in "What Do We Look at After Foreign Exchange Deposits Disappear?" I tend to believe that fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves priced in USD themselves do not impact the RMB value on the central bank's balance sheet. It's only when the central bank decides to "realize" gains and losses that both assets (foreign exchange deposits) and equity (undistributed profits) are affected. The increase in undistributed profits from turnover contributes to fiscal deposits. If the central bank repeatedly realizes gains and losses, it seems that the USD-denominated foreign exchange reserves continually affect the central bank's balance sheet through undistributed profits.

Apart from net income from foreign exchange reserve operations, the central bank mentions that gains from securities trading result from net earnings generated during the open market operations of government bonds and specific bonds in the context of monetary policy implementation. Losses from securities trading involve net losses incurred during the central bank's open market operations of government bonds and specific bonds. It should be noted that both color change and net income from foreign exchange reserve operations involve self-appreciation and depreciation of assets. Although this also implies changes in the RMB value of gold, silver, and foreign exchange assets, there's no actual RMB movement in this process. Trading gold, trading foreign exchange, and trading securities are equivalent, involving RMB movements and changes in RMB valuation.

However, from the perspective of the central bank's financial system, we don't see that buying and selling gold, silver, and foreign exchange lead to changes in the central bank's revenue and expenses. This implies that while adjusting the quantities of gold, silver, and foreign exchange, the central bank may also adjust the corresponding deposit and RMB amounts in equal measure. In this operation, since assets and liabilities always change in equal amounts, even if the changes in deposit and RMB liabilities are different from the changes in gold, silver, and foreign exchange, there is no impact on owner's equity.

For example, if the central bank buys $1 trillion in US dollars and simultaneously creates ¥7 trillion RMB, then sells $0.5 trillion to recover ¥3 trillion RMB, in theory, it should face a loss of ¥500 billion RMB. However, in accounting terms, buying $1 trillion US dollars is represented by an increase of ¥7 trillion in deposits and ¥7 trillion in required reserves deposits. Selling $0.5 trillion is represented by a decrease of ¥3 trillion RMB and ¥3 trillion in required reserves deposits. This has no relation to undistributed profits and doesn't involve gains or losses.

Why is it that gains and losses from gold and silver color change, foreign exchange reserve operations, gains and losses from securities trading can be included in profit, but gains and losses from gold, silver, and foreign exchange trading in RMB cannot be included in profit? Looking directly at it, this is likely related to the "deposit" mechanism. While buying securities, the central bank also needs to create liquidity, and it can be considered as "security deposits." However, in reality, the central bank values securities based on their actual costs rather than as "deposits."

The difference between cost and deposit can also be demonstrated using the example above. We can see that after the central bank sells $0.5 trillion US dollars, although there is no gain or loss, the remaining $0.5 trillion corresponds to ¥4 trillion RMB, an exchange rate of 1:8. If we use the cost method, then $0.5 trillion should maintain an exchange rate of 1:7, corresponding to ¥3.5 trillion RMB. In other words, the treatment of deposits disregards gains and losses, but the risk is reflected in the "required reserve ratio."

This might be because gold, silver, and foreign exchange were initially treated as "reserves" and were often pegged at fixed exchange rates with liabilities, hence considering "deposits" in measurement. In the case of price changes at different levels, the flow of RMB through different prices is not reflected as gains and losses, but rather as changes in the required reserve ratio. This still holds true even if exchange rate fluctuations occur. However, for securities transactions, the central bank considers gains and losses, but not the "required reserve ratio."

To summarize the above content, we can observe that the central bank, as a bank, has the ability to directly convert undistributed profits in owner's equity into liabilities. As the central bank's liabilities are liquidity itself, the process of the central bank turning over profits to the fiscal authority is a liquidity creation process, which differs from enterprises turning over profits as a liquidity transfer. Changes in the fair value of gold, silver, and foreign exchange related to international payments and receipts, due to the cost-based valuation, do not affect the central bank's gains and losses. The RMB gains and losses related to gold, silver, and foreign exchange transactions (buying and selling) and foreign exchange transactions (conversion) do not affect the central bank's gains and losses or its equity due to the simultaneous increase and decrease of assets and liabilities. Changes in the intrinsic value of gold, silver, and foreign exchange can impact the central bank's gains and losses through simultaneous adjustments to deposits and equity.

Having understood how the profits of the central bank are turned over to the fiscal authority, we can see the close relationship between the central bank and the fiscal authority. We can consider two questions. Firstly, the foreign exchange reserves belong to the central bank, the central bank belongs to the state, and profits are turned over to the fiscal authority. Why can't the foreign exchange reserves be transferred to the state without compensation? I have discussed this issue in a series of articles, and relevant to this discussion is the article "Can Transferring Foreign Exchange Reserves Collapse the Central Bank's Balance Sheet?"

In that article, I mentioned, "A decline in stock price or a gratuitous transfer, the latter not only will not collapse the central bank's balance sheet but will also have no impact on the central bank's balance sheet." Now, looking deeper, a gratuitous transfer is in a state of ambiguity. From one perspective, a gratuitous transfer can be seen as converting "zero" RMB into billions of US dollars. In this sense, a gratuitous transfer doesn't affect the central bank's balance sheet, but it decreases the required reserve ratio. On the other hand, a gratuitous transfer can be seen as a devaluation of foreign exchange reserves. Apart from reducing the required reserve ratio, it also reduces the total reserves in the central bank's equity while increasing losses awaiting offset, effectively giving foreign exchange to the fiscal authority without charge but leading to losses in the central bank's equity. In the end, it's a zero-sum game.

The second question is: China Investment Corporation (CIC), which falls under the fiscal authority, pays special bond interest to the central bank each year. The central bank's interest income from these bonds ultimately becomes profits turned over to the fiscal authority. This is essentially the fiscal authority's money, going through the central bank and then back to the fiscal authority. So, what's the difference between this transaction and CIC directly paying the interest income from the special bonds to the fiscal authority?

A possible answer is that although the end result is the same in terms of cash flow, market-based prices give rise to market-based outcomes. The key lies in the level of government bond interest rates. If CIC directly pays the income to the fiscal authority, it wouldn't have the operating pressure caused by interest payments and wouldn't experience the anxiety of paying ¥300 million in interest every day, as described by Mr. Lou in a 2007 interview. If government bond interest rates are not market-based, the incentives they create wouldn't be market-based either, leading to distortions.

On a micro level, market-based arrangements and the flow of cash also regulate the behavior of micro entities. Even though the central bank's profits ultimately belong to the fiscal authority, whether it's paying taxes, fees, turning over profits, or distributing dividends, it's all differences in payment categories. But these different categories and operations ensure that the fiscal authority and the central bank's actions are in line with regulations and market requirements. Each entity can act rationally within their own limits. The value of money is reflected in its circulation, and the path of circulation is more meaningful than the destination.