（万门大学2015年5月2日活动分享内容）

很高兴能和大家交流一下关于学习金融的一些想法J 我本科入学是在2005年，前两年是基础课，大三开始分专业上课，但由于选课没有限制，很多不同专业的同学还是在一起上课的。基础课主要包括经济学和数学课，专业课则是不同金融领域的相关介绍，比如银行，金融市场，公司金融，国际金融，衍生金融产品等等。课外我和很多同学一起炒炒股票和外汇，也算是对课程知识的一种实践。

很多同学觉得金融就是很多数学，觉得金融就是一堆公式和复杂的计算。诚然，学好数学确实会对学好金融有帮助，但话又说回来，学好数学对学习很多学科都有帮助：最近很火的关于计算机写宋词的软件的事情甚至告诉我们，统计可以帮助大家写诗词。事实上，数学是一种工具，可以帮助人们更好地利用信息和分析问题，但正如物理世界有其自己的规律，而数学是在总结和发现物理规律一样，金融也有自己的规律。

例如外汇市场，1美元兑换多少人民币，受到经济政策和市场情绪的影响。美联储意外宣布降息，或者美国就业数据很差会对美元和人民币的汇率产生什么冲击？这个问题并不是一个数学问题，而是一个金融问题，需要对金融的了解才能回答。这也是为什么我们看到很多数学和物理专业的同学学习金融之后很多时候还是会感到一头雾水，因为在数学的世界里没有中央银行和就业之类的概念，更不用说罢工和“非典”之类。金融世界和物理世界一样有自己的特点，学好数学会有帮助，但不意味着学好了数学就能够替代对金融的学习。

那么学好经济金融理论是不是就能在金融市场当中大赚一笔呢，事实上也不是。首先，金融和其他学科一样，都存在多个原因导致一个结果的问题。我印象特别深刻的就是在国际金融当中，物价和汇率的关系就有好几种，有的理论里高物价导致升值，有的理论里会导致贬值，那么到底该升值还是贬值呢？简单套用理论会导致错误，而不确定的结论虽然避免了错误，但投资需要一个看多看空的态度，袖手旁观不会亏欠但也永远不会挣钱。

其次，金融和物理之类的学科的重大区别，在于金融中的很多因果关系并不稳定，这既表现在上面提到的多个原因中主要和次要原因的角色经常变化，也体现在即使很明显的关系也会由于市场条件的变化而变化。比如在此次牛市当中我们就看得很清楚，很多债券在违约，不能还本付息，但股票市场不为所动，个别还不起债的公司的股票居然涨停，股民丝毫不考虑资不抵债意味着公司倒闭。所以光掌握理论是不够的，还要根据市场的情况来判断。

所以我们当时在学习金融的时候我认为是十分幸运的。2005-2007年是中国股票的牛市，所以我们在本科的前两年看到的就是牛市中的市场如何疯狂，看到的是通货膨胀猪肉价格飙升，看到央行在紧缩货币政策来应对等等。而大学后两年是熊市的开端和次贷危机的展开，我们又见证了什么叫崩盘，恐慌，刺激政策，还有随之而来的各种资产价格的变化。新学习的理论马上就被我们用来描述、解释和预测市场的变化，而且是现场直播的live show。

更何况，实际的金融世界比理论要“肮脏”很多，有许许多多掣肘的地方，而不是一个完美无暇的世界。一个月的天数不是固定的，人们每天是要下班休息的，股票涨跌是有幅度限制的，券商要收手续费国家要收税的，决策官员更换了思路是会变化的，理财产品购买起点是5万块的。所以，即使我们对所有的因果关系都了如指掌，在操作上仍然不能像理论描述得那样优美，而必须要虑到方方面面现实的问题。

上面就是一些我关于学习金融的小想法，总的来说就是不要被金融中的数学吓倒，没有数学也可以学好金融。此外就是理论是重要的，但离实践还有很大距离，需要通过实践来积累更多经验。这次的小分享就到这里，谢谢大家。

(Wanmen University May 2nd Event Sharing Content).

I'm glad to have the opportunity to exchange some thoughts with everyone about studying finance. I started my undergraduate studies in 2005. The first two years were focused on foundational courses, and in the third year, we began taking specialized courses. However, due to the lack of restrictions on course selection, students from different majors still attended classes together.

The foundational courses mainly included economics and mathematics, while the specialized courses covered various areas of finance such as banking, financial markets, corporate finance, international finance, derivative financial products, and more. Outside of class, I, along with many classmates, dabbled in trading stocks and foreign exchange, which could be considered a practical application of our course knowledge.

Many students perceive finance as heavily mathematical, thinking it's all about formulas and complex calculations. Indeed, having a good grasp of mathematics can certainly be helpful in excelling in finance. But it's worth noting that learning mathematics is beneficial in many disciplines. Recent trends, like software that composes poetry using statistical techniques, even tell us that statistics can help create poems. Mathematics is a tool that assists people in better utilizing information and analyzing problems. Just as the physical world has its own laws, and mathematics summarizes and uncovers those laws, finance also has its own rules.

For instance, in the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate of 1 US dollar to how much Chinese yuan is influenced by economic policies and market sentiments. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly announces an interest rate cut or if US employment data is poor, what impact would it have on the exchange rate between the US dollar and Chinese yuan? This question is not purely mathematical; it's a financial question that requires an understanding of finance to answer. This is why we often see students from mathematics and physics backgrounds feeling confused after studying finance, as the world of mathematics doesn't encompass concepts like central banks, employment, labor strikes, or epidemics. The world of finance, much like the physical world, has its unique characteristics. While having a solid foundation in mathematics is helpful, it doesn't mean that mastering mathematics can replace the need to study finance.

So, is mastering economic and financial theory enough to make a fortune in the financial markets? In reality, it's not that simple. First, finance, like other disciplines, involves multiple factors contributing to a single outcome. I distinctly remember a scenario in international finance where the relationship between prices and exchange rates has several theories: some theories suggest that high prices lead to appreciation, while others suggest it leads to depreciation. So, should it appreciate or depreciate? Applying theories directly can lead to errors, and while uncertain conclusions avoid mistakes, investment requires a balanced view of both bullish and bearish perspectives. Being a passive observer avoids losses, but it also prevents gains.

Secondly, a significant difference between finance and disciplines like physics is that many cause-and-effect relationships in finance are not stable. This is reflected in the varying roles of primary and secondary causes in the relationships mentioned earlier and also in how even clear relationships can change due to shifts in market conditions. For example, during this bull market, we clearly witnessed that many bonds defaulted, unable to pay interest or principal, yet the stock market remained unaffected. Shares of companies that couldn't meet their debt obligations even skyrocketed, with investors disregarding the fact that such companies were insolvent. Therefore, simply understanding theory is not sufficient; judgment must be based on market conditions.

When we were studying finance at that time, I believe we were fortunate. The years 2005 to 2007 were a bull market for Chinese stocks, so during the first two years of our undergraduate studies, we witnessed how the market behaved crazily during the bull market. We saw inflation causing pork prices to surge, and the central bank implementing tightening monetary policies in response, and so on. The next two years of university marked the beginning of a bear market and the unfolding of the subprime mortgage crisis. We also witnessed what a market collapse, panic, stimulus policies, and various changes in asset prices looked like. We immediately applied the newly learned theories to describe, explain, and predict market changes, almost like a live show.

Moreover, the practical financial world is much more "messy" than the theory, full of constraints. It's not a flawless world. The number of days in a month is not fixed, people have to rest after work every day, stock price fluctuations have limitations, brokerages charge fees, taxes are collected by the government, decision-makers' strategies can change, and financial products have a minimum investment of 50,000 yuan. So, even if we understand all the causal relationships, operational aspects are not as smooth as described by theory and must account for various practical issues.

Above are some of my thoughts on studying finance. In summary, don't be intimidated by the mathematics in finance; you can still excel in finance without advanced mathematics. Additionally, theory is important, but it's quite different from real-world practice, and more experience must be accumulated through practice. That's the end of my brief sharing. Thank you, everyone.